Global AgriTrends

06.25.26

Markets Shrug off New World Screwworm Concerns, Calves and Feeders to New HIGHS

While Screwworm cases rise (and that will continue), markets have accepted the message that this will not alter U.S. supply or demand for beef. Summer video auctions are beginning and prices are pushing into new record highs, just as we have suggested over the past year. And the highs are not yet in.

When to market calves? History would suggest those fall weaned calves bring the highest prices in the mid-summer video auctions versus Oct/Nov pricing. But that is the average and doesn’t happen every year. Recent years with tightening cattle supplies have not seen an Oct/Nov discount, and that may be the case again this year.

Feedlots are going to have to bid more aggressively to keep bunk spaces full as cattle supplies continue to decline. Typically, in this phase of the cycle, feedlot margins get tight but the past two years have not. Strong demand has floated all boats (except the packers). But both feeders and packers operate with fixed capacities (bunk spaces and shackles), and when feeder/calf supplies shrink they are both pushed to bid away more margin to keep capacity utilization high.

That means strong bids for calves and feeders. Should you price fall delivery calves and feeders off these hot summer auctions, or ride it out into fall? Honestly it will be difficult to be wrong in a year like this. If you’re concerned, you may hedge your bets by splitting half and half (steers and heifers). It’s our nature to mope when we miss the high, but considering prices this year, don’t mope for long.

Enjoy our nation’s 250th birthday this year with some expensive and fantastic U.S. beef. I am humbled by the sacrifice of our nation’s founders and so many brave men and women since, to keep this nation not only free but the greatest nation on earth. I count my lucky stars to be born here.

Brett Stuart