Global AgriTrends

04.30.26

New RECORD Highs for Cattle and Beef Markets

- More fireworks in the cattle markets this week as fed cattle prices push well into new record high territory. The weekly fed cattle price will average above $250/cwt this week for the first time ever. Some cattle trade was reported as high as $257/cwt midweek. We expect a strong market into Friday. These prices are on path to our $270/cwt forecast set back in January. Time will tell…

- The high cattle prices are coming as beef production continues to decline. Production is down -6% YTD, down -7% over the past 8 weeks. Steer and heifer slaughter averaged -9% below a year ago thus far in 2026. Carcass weights remain stable near 985 pounds.

- Alarm bells continue to sound over high gas prices and consumer belt-tightening. A recent survey suggests 80% of Americans feel that their financial situation is worsening. But is it? The math on current gas prices and wages versus a year ago show that at average mileage, Americans fuel costs are now $52/month above a year ago. Average wages are $200-300/month above a year ago.

- The beef cutout reversed course and moved slightly higher the past week to $387/cwt. Spring grilling season is just beginning and typically takes the cutout higher through June. Retailers are becoming keenly aware of the -6% reduction in availability of all cuts, particularly grilling meats like ribeyes.

- 90% lean trimmings pushed to a new record high this week, currently at $459/cwt, on its way to our $500/cwt forecasted high this summer. Cow kills are averaging -5% lower on a weekly basis this year, now averaging -18% lower than the 2022 levels. Cow plant capacity is now down near 60%, a dismal prospect for cow processors.

- Same story as last week: New World Screwworm detections continue south of the U.S. border with a recent case 60 miles from Texas. The flies will reach the U.S. this summer. Mexico and Central America have reported ~168,000 animal cases and over 1,710 human cases since the resurgence. USDA will be hard-pressed to open the border, but that does not appear likely. They are moving forward with their sterile fly production facilities. Note that facilities have been releasing 100 million sterile flies per week along the 60-mile (100 km) Darien Gap in Panama for the past 4 decades, and somehow the flies breached that gap. It is unlikely that the USDA’s 100 million fly/week facility at Moore Air Force Base in Texas will be effective on the 1,500-mile U.S. border with Mexico.

Bottom line: Cattle and Beef

Economics continue to support higher cattle and beef prices. Tightening supplies with stellar demand points to higher prices. Retailers will have to ration back offerings, and price will be the determinant of who gets (and doesn’t get) the beef. Expect a strong seasonal rally into June and beyond.

Herd expansion remains subdued based on very dry conditions across key cattle regions in the Midwest, southern plains, and southeast. But subscribers will want to tune into our Monday Thoughts for the Week with Dr. Art Douglas (long-term ag weather forecaster) for some keen thoughts on the “Super El Nino” that is now well underway and ahead of schedule. Spoiler alert: GOOD news for the intermountain West…

Brett Stuart