Global AgriTrends

04.17.26

When to Market Calves?

In spite of heavy consumer inflation on food and fuel, cattle prices have once again returned to record highs, as I predicted they would last October. Fed cattle are up $34/cwt since the November lows. U.S. average 550# calf averaged $497/cwt last week and will soon break the $500/cwt mark. 750# feeders are up $46/cwt from the November lows to $388/cwt.

Here’s a common question I’ve had recently: When should calves be marketed this year? And another common question is related: What could break this market?

Let’s start with the second question: What could break this market?

Prices are a function of supply and demand. For prices to move lower would need a break in demand and/or a surge in supply.

Demand fears are rising as consumers face soaring gas prices, as well as sustained food and housing inflation. Yet consumer spending remains quite durable. Beef is now a “luxury item” priced closer to lobster tail than to hot dogs and chicken. Beef consumers are a durable group, proven by the sustained high prices over the past two years. That doesn’t make beef immune to economic pressure, but does insulate them from initial shocks.

Supply risk is very limited. There are few things that could deliver a surge in beef supplies. Some suggest a reopening of the Mexican border to feeder cattle could lead to higher supplies. Two problems: 1) Imported Mexican feeder cattle going onto pasture and feed are unable to make more beef until late 2026 at the earliest, and 2) USDA’s suggestion of possible border openings points to a phased reopening of the Arizona ports initially, representing less than 25% of historical cattle imports. And note that the odds of a U.S. Screwworm invasion are rising each month with the thermometer. Screwworm cases in the U.S. would trigger eradication efforts, unlikely to include an open border.

So the first question: When to market calves?

With beef production down a whopping -6% in the first quarter of 2026, higher prices are the trend. We see sharply higher prices into the summer period when demand pushes even higher. We expect 90% trimmings to break $500/cwt, fed steers above $260/cwt, and national 550# calf prices above $520/cwt by fall. And these estimates may be conservative.

That being said, consider your risk appetite and market calves accordingly. Markets are uncertain (definition: “unknown”). A strategy to price steers and heifers at different times reduces overall market risk. Expect some fireworks in the summer video auctions. And watch fed cattle prices as the indicator of calf price potential. The Nervous-Nellie deferred live cattle futures are not the best indicator; spot cash prices have proven futures wrong the past two years.

Two wildcards to watch: DROUGHT that could increase slaughter rates, and the USDA’s efforts to reopening the Mexican border to feeder cattle. Note that the La Nina (dry) pattern is shifting to El Nino (wet) this summer. And earlier this week a case of New World Screwworm was found in Mexico just 80 miles from the Texas border.

-Brett Stuart