Global AgriTrends

03.05.26

The U.S. Cattle and Beef “Bull Market” Shifts into High Gear

Those who listen to me often may think I sound like a broken record on this – the bull market rally in cattle and beef is NOT YET OVER. When the markets broke lower last October following Trump’s announcement of expanded Argentina beef quota, many suggested the highs were in. I did not.

Fundamentally (supply and demand) the only changes have been continued stellar consumer demand tightening U.S. beef supplies. Beef production averaged 6% lower in February (with carcass weights up 3%); we can do that math…

Consumer dollars fuel this industry. And they continue to pour in. Beef ribeye prices are moving higher again. And 90% lean trims (burger) will likely top a new record high this week. Anyone sold cull cows recently? You know what I’m talking about. And those cull cow prices typically shift higher into spring. Just like grass cattle prices.

In the Western AgCredit region, snowpack remains low, shockingly low. Yet rains now have precip at/above 100% of normal for most of Utah. Northern Utah is now 110% or more of normal precipitation. Good news for Governor Cox in his efforts to “fill the Great Salt Lake” by 2034 (don't get me started, but you can read my thoughts on "X" Twitter under @agritrends). Actually we better hope not, that would put Salt Lake City 900 feet underwater…

Weather forecasts suggest average precipitation in most of Utah for spring and summer with some slightly below normal precip forecasts for Southern Utah.

Calving weather has been fantastic thus far and likely to continue. Cattle markets are stratospheric. Summer grazing may be strained by early snow melt. But overall – this is shaping up to be another absolutely incredible year for cattle producers. Last year saw estimated cow/calf margins over $900/head (from LMIC). That’s 20 years of historical average margins. Add another 20 years of margin this year, and possibly 20 years of more margins next year. In the cattle world, sometimes profits raise anxiety. It’s tempting to consider all the bad news and uncertainty. But take some time to enjoy the current situation. Buckle up – keep calves alive, upgrade some equipment, and buy some feed and supplement if needed.

Brett Stuart