Global AgriTrends

02.23.26

Cattle and Beef Market Thoughts

Summary:

Cattle and beef markets continue to grind higher on tight supplies and stellar demand. Fed cattle posted new record highs last week at $247/cwt. The beef cutout and many cuts are running well above a year ago. Cattle producers are holding tough for higher prices before deploying any real expansion. Calf prices will see new record highs this summer and fall, above the $2,400 range of last year. Will it be enough to spur expansion? Time will tell. But even if it does, heifer calves held in 2026 to be bred in 2027 to calve in 2028 would not produce more beef until 2029. This bull market appears to have a long tail.

Some thoughts on the current cattle and beef markets:

• U.S. beef production was down -5% from a year ago last week, now averaging -7% thus far in 2026. Carcass weights were 981 pounds last week, up 30 pounds (+3%) from a year ago.

• Beef import arrivals from Argentina topped 3.2 million pounds last week, the 2nd largest in over a year. On a YTD basis those imports sit at 10.2 million pounds or 4,617 metric tons in 5 weeks. Recall the expanded quota that Trump offered Argentina (taken from Brazil’s quota) gives them 100,000 mt for 2026. To keep pace and hit that, they’d need to be shipping around 8,300 mt per month.

• 90% lean beef prices are churning higher, now at $428/cwt and headed toward new record highs. The beef cutout at $367/cwt is now running 11% above a year ago.

• Fed cattle topped a new record high last week at $247/cwt! That is running well above last year confirming our long-held (and long-discussed) belief that the bull market did not end last year as many had suggested. And prices will push higher from here into spring/summer. Consumer demand is excellent, the cowherd declined again in 2025 and heifer retention was only up 1% in the annual inventory report from January.

• Chinese bids for Brazilian beef are running well above a year ago even as Brazil’s exports to China were record high in Q4 2025. With an impending slowdown in Brazilian slaughter this year, and China’s quota that will reduce imports, prices are likely to run hot all year in China. This raises the stakes for a U.S. – China deal.

Bottom line: The bull market continues. And will likely push higher into 2027. Consumers are bidding with all their heart (and wallets) for a bigger beef herd that producers refuse to make. So the ante is upped yet again this year with higher prices across the cattle and beef complex. Will it be enough to spur a rebuild? If not supplies will continue to tighten and consumers will raise their bids yet again, until a rebuild occurs. As of now the price highs in the U.S. cattle and beef markets are likely pushed into 2027.

Brett Stuart