Global AgriTrends

02.13.26

Tight Cattle and Beef Supplies Keep the Bull Market Running into 2026

Summary: The drumbeat of tightening U.S. beef supplies continues. Both feeder and live cattle futures have corrected sharply from last October’s drop when Trump first announced measures to reduce beef prices (including the Argentina quota). That Argentine quota will do little to change the national beef equation.

Expect new highs in cattle and beef prices into spring/summer as stellar demand meets tight supplies.

And the lack of herd rebuilding tacks another year onto this bull market cycle. Will calf prices reach high enough levels to spur expansion this year? Cow calf producers did not accept the $480/cwt prices last year as a high enough bid to make bigger herds, maybe $500/cwt and up this year will do it? If not, we’ll keep pushing higher until we get a rebuild. Good news across cattle country!

Some thoughts on the current cattle and beef markets:

- U.S. beef production has averaged -10% lower on a weekly basis versus last year. That is a BIG drop. Note that the WASDE report earlier this week forecasts 2026 beef production at

-0.3% from 2025. And that’s with 1% fewer beef cows and 1% more beef heifers according to USDA’s January Cattle Inventory report. Production will be lower than USDA estimates this year. Expect higher prices.

- Carcass weights continued rising at 987 pounds last week, up 4% from a year ago. And even with that included, production is still pacing -10% below a year ago. Buckle up.

- Beef and cattle prices are moving higher, pacing well above year ago levels. Fed cattle prices are back above $240/cwt (+17%), 90% lean is pushing higher at $418/cwt last week (+12%), and the beef cutout trend is seasonally higher pacing well above year ago levels at $366/cwt (+11%).

- The big wildcards include Mexican Screwworm and the Chinese ban on U.S. beef. Screwworm cases appear to be a certainty in the U.S., possibly this year. That will likely keep the border closed keeping cattle supplies tight. The question on whether Mexico will build increased feeding and slaughter facilities remains complicated. Big infrastructure development feels like a long-term answer to a short-term problem. Or is it? Time will tell. While there is likely chatter about this, there has been no public announcement yet of increased feeding/packing capacity along the U.S. border in Mexico.

- The Chinese ban on U.S. beef remains and accounts for nearly the full decline in exports. But China did include a quota allocation of 164,000 mt even though the market is currently closed. This ban could be negotiated when Trump travels to Beijing in April. But Trump doesn’t appear poised to want anything that could raise the price of U.S. beef. We’ll see…

- Argentina imports are pacing higher in the preliminary 2026 data. Trump’s quota gift bumps them from 20,000 mt per year to 100,000 mt. But that quota is defined as beef trimmings only which complicates the expectations. Just a note that 100,000 mt of beef imports would be about 6% of total beef imports into the U.S. last year and roughly 1% of U.S. beef production.

Brett Stuart