Global AgriTrends

06.10.25

U.S. Beef Remains Banned by China

On March 16th, China’s system of approval for U.S. meat exporters failed to renew their export registrations, effectively closing the border to U.S. beef. This system was put in place under Trump’s Phase One agreement with the commitment that U.S. registrations would auto-renew. U.S. beef shipments to China have now halted.

China became the world’s largest beef importer in 2017. Their total imports surged nearly 40-fold from 2012 to 2022 as Chinese consumers got a taste for beef; historically pork was the main protein in China. As demand surged Chinese importers scoured the earth for more supplies. Imports reached $13.8 billion in 2024.

U.S. beef has been banned by China until 2017 when negotiations allowed shipments to resume. But in 2020 the Phase One deal supercharged U.S. beef by allowing all USDA approved facilities to export (China is notorious for foot-dragging individual plant approvals). They became the #3 market for U.S. beef in 2020 and peaked at $1.8 billion in U.S. beef in 2022.

The March 2025 ban was unforeseen and unexplained. While the Chinese also allowed pork and poultry exporter registrations to lapse, those were renewed within weeks. But not beef. With the U.S. and Canada both out for China, Australian grainfed beef exporters report brisk business.

The Trump team is now engaged with ongoing trade talks with China. A Phase Two agreement would be welcome news for U.S. beef and other agriculture. The U.S. shipped record agriculture exports to China following the Phase One agreement. Stay tuned…

When the ban was announced, Korea quickly snapped up some of the lost Chinese business but that has now settled back to historical volumes. The loss of China (and strong U.S. beef demand) has prompted our current export forecast of -13% for 2025 beef exports.