Global AgriTrends
Back07.09.25
@#$% Imported Beef!
Cattlemen carry an inherent distaste for imported beef. That is not unique to beef; most domestic industries see imports as a threat to market shares and pricing.
I’ve spent the last 20 years deeply involved in global beef trade. Prior to that I was a rancher. And I’ve had an internal debate all those years about how to explain beef imports as less threatening than commonly perceived. Not that I have any vested interest in imported beef. It comes from my desire to communicate economic truth. And I’ve spent hours (and hours, and hours) debating this topic. So hate the numbers, not the numbers guy.
U.S. beef imports grew mostly in tandem with beef exports in recent decades. Key drivers include rising global incomes and preferences for beef. Another factor has been the fact that we export higher value cuts like chuck rolls, short ribs, and short plates, at much higher prices than our lean grinding beef prices. As these were pulled from the trim bin over the past 30 years, lower value imports displaced that reduced trim supply.
So do imports weaken domestic beef prices? Imported beef most clearly competes with cull cows since most imported beef comes in as lean grinding beef (similar to cull cows). This chart shows the monthly beef imports along with cull cow prices. You can see the seasonality as cull cow supplies peak into fall/winter (lowest prices) and the strongest beef demand is mid-summer.
This chart actually shows a positive correlation between imported beef and cull cow prices, meaning that the highest cull cow prices come when beef imports are the highest. As odd as that sounds it is simple supply and demand. Higher priced grinding beef prices spur imports.
How high would prices be without imports? With chicken breast prices now half the price of 90% lean beef, it’s hard to imagine that higher lean beef prices wouldn’t spur more chicken production and burgers would become more of a “luxury” item based on smaller supplies. There’s a glass ceiling out there somewhere that cull cow prices cannot exceed without stalling demand (especially with much cheaper chicken prices).
So, should cattlemen curse imports? Sure – curse away. There are some risks of foreign animal disease and it’s important to understand those risks. But it’s hard to argue that this product displaces U.S. beef; it probably displaces more U.S. chicken which would ultimately fill the gap. And, pick your timing: it’s hard to make an economic accusation against record high beef imports when cull cows are selling at $149/cwt.
Brett Stuart
